Real Estate Blues: Why 11 Key Indian Developers Are Down 5-38% YTD in 2025 Amid Market Headwinds

  The Indian real estate sector, often hailed as a cornerstone of economic growth, is facing a turbulent 2025. Contributing around 7% to the nation's GDP, the industry was projected to expand to $1 trillion by 2030, fueled by urbanization and infrastructure booms. Yet, halfway through the year, all 21 tracked stocks in the real estate and construction space are in the red, with year-to-date (YTD) declines ranging from a modest 5% to a staggering 38%. This sector-wide slump isn't just bad luck—it's a cocktail of escalating construction costs, a 13% drop in residential sales volumes in H1 2025 due to shifting buyer preferences and macroeconomic pressures, and affordability crunches in metros where prices have surged 21% annually. High interest rates and reduced launches have compounded the pain, leading to a 27% YoY dip in institutional investments to $1.2 billion in the first half. In this two-part deep dive, we'll unpack the first half of these laggards—11 stocks that...
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Is It Time to Sell NTPC? Analyzing Short-Term Risks Amid IPO Launch

 

As NTPC prepares to launch its NTPC Green Energy IPO, investors are weighing whether to hold or sell their shares in the company. Here are some critical factors to consider before making your decision.

1. Overvaluation Concerns

The estimated discounted cash flow (DCF) value for NTPC is ₹215.28 per share, while its current market price stands at ₹423.95. This indicates that the stock is overvalued by approximately 49%. Such a significant discrepancy raises red flags for short-term investors.

2. Risks Highlighted in IPO Filing

NTPC Green Energy has outlined potential risks in its IPO filing, particularly concerning import restrictions from China. As a major supplier of solar and wind equipment, any trade restrictions could adversely affect NTPC's business operations. The company imported ₹1,271 crore worth of equipment from China in FY24, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

3. Market Sentiment and Alternatives

While NTPC faces challenges, Tata Power presents an appealing alternative. Following a recent upgrade from Morgan Stanley, Tata Power's shares have surged to record highs. The company is undergoing a multi-year transformation, with 45% of its capital expenditure (capex) allocated to renewable energy projects from FY23 to FY27. This strategic shift is expected to enhance earnings stability and growth potential.

4. Future Earnings Outlook

Tata Power is projected to increase its share of core earnings from 40% to 90% over the same period. Analysts note a strong 14% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in profit after tax (PAT) for FY24-27, indicating a robust earnings trajectory.

Conclusion: What Should Investors Do?

Given the overvaluation of NTPC shares and the potential risks highlighted in its IPO filing, short-term investors may want to consider selling their NTPC holdings. Instead, reallocating funds to Tata Power, which is positioned for substantial growth and lower earnings volatility, could be a more strategic move.

As always, investors should assess their risk tolerance and investment goals before making any decisions. Stay informed and choose wisely!

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