India GDP Growth 2026: Economy Beats Forecasts with Strong 7.7% Expansion in FY26; Q4 Grows 7.8%

  India has once again showcased its economic resilience. The country recorded a robust 7.7% GDP growth in fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), surpassing both the previous year’s 6.5% and the government’s Second Advance Estimate of 7.6%. This performance reaffirms India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite global headwinds like geopolitical tensions and volatile crude oil prices. According to provisional estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday, the Indian economy continues to demonstrate strong momentum. Key Highlights of India’s FY26 GDP Numbers Annual GDP Growth : 7.7% in FY26 (up from 6.5% in FY25) Q4 FY26 Growth : 7.8% (steady from the previous quarter) Real GDP Level : ₹323.12 lakh crore in FY26, compared to ₹299.89 lakh crore (First Revised Estimate) in FY25 Real Gross Value Added (GVA) : Expanded by 7.9% for the full year Nominal GVA : Grew 9.1% in FY26 Q4 GVA Performance : Real GVA a...
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Is It Time to Sell NTPC? Analyzing Short-Term Risks Amid IPO Launch

 

As NTPC prepares to launch its NTPC Green Energy IPO, investors are weighing whether to hold or sell their shares in the company. Here are some critical factors to consider before making your decision.

1. Overvaluation Concerns

The estimated discounted cash flow (DCF) value for NTPC is ₹215.28 per share, while its current market price stands at ₹423.95. This indicates that the stock is overvalued by approximately 49%. Such a significant discrepancy raises red flags for short-term investors.

2. Risks Highlighted in IPO Filing

NTPC Green Energy has outlined potential risks in its IPO filing, particularly concerning import restrictions from China. As a major supplier of solar and wind equipment, any trade restrictions could adversely affect NTPC's business operations. The company imported ₹1,271 crore worth of equipment from China in FY24, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

3. Market Sentiment and Alternatives

While NTPC faces challenges, Tata Power presents an appealing alternative. Following a recent upgrade from Morgan Stanley, Tata Power's shares have surged to record highs. The company is undergoing a multi-year transformation, with 45% of its capital expenditure (capex) allocated to renewable energy projects from FY23 to FY27. This strategic shift is expected to enhance earnings stability and growth potential.

4. Future Earnings Outlook

Tata Power is projected to increase its share of core earnings from 40% to 90% over the same period. Analysts note a strong 14% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in profit after tax (PAT) for FY24-27, indicating a robust earnings trajectory.

Conclusion: What Should Investors Do?

Given the overvaluation of NTPC shares and the potential risks highlighted in its IPO filing, short-term investors may want to consider selling their NTPC holdings. Instead, reallocating funds to Tata Power, which is positioned for substantial growth and lower earnings volatility, could be a more strategic move.

As always, investors should assess their risk tolerance and investment goals before making any decisions. Stay informed and choose wisely!

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