The Indian auto sector has faced notable fluctuations in recent months, with the NIFTY Auto index correcting 21% from its September 2024 peaks. Despite muted earnings in Q3FY25, some companies have managed to outperform expectations, showcasing resilience and growth potential. Investors keen on the auto sector must consider key factors that will influence the industry's future trajectory.
Healthy Volume Growth
The overall volume growth for Q3FY25 remained robust at 10.8% YoY, reaching 77.98 lakh units compared to 70.36 lakh units in Q3FY24. The key segmental performances were:
Two-wheelers: Grew 12.4% YoY
Passenger vehicles: Increased by 5.9% YoY
Tractors: Showed the highest growth at 20.1% YoY, reaching 2.44 lakh units
This growth was primarily fueled by strong urban demand and a significant pickup in rural consumption. On a YTD basis, volume growth stood at 8.4% YoY, hitting 2.2 crore units, compared to 2.03 crore units during the same period in the previous year.
Moderate Top-Line Growth
The NIFTY Auto index companies reported 7.6% YoY growth in total sales, amounting to ₹2.98 lakh crore, up from ₹2.12 lakh crore in the year-ago period. This single-digit growth was supported by rising volumes and periodic price hikes. Furthermore, rural demand outpacing urban demand contributed positively to sales figures.
Experts believe upcoming quarters could see stronger revenue growth, thanks to middle-class tax relief introduced in the Union Budget 2025.
Muted Bottom-Line Growth
Despite steady top-line growth, operational profitability remained under pressure due to heightened cost constraints and aggressive discounting.
Profit Before Interest, Depreciation, and Taxes (PBIDT): Increased 3.6% YoY to ₹42,305 crore
Net Profit: Witnessed a marginal 1.75% YoY growth to ₹21,103 crore
While Q3FY25 earnings were subdued, they were still an improvement over Q2FY25, where profits had stagnated.
Hits and Misses for the Quarter
While some auto companies struggled, others posted impressive net profit growth.
Top Performers:
Underperformers:
MRF: -38%
Apollo Tyres: -32%
Exide Industries: -22%
Hyundai Motors: -19%
Tata Motors: -19%
What Lies Ahead?
Despite the recent correction in the NIFTY Auto index, investor sentiment is expected to turn positive due to the following tailwinds:
Price hikes across segments
Interest rate cuts, making vehicle financing more attractive
Tax reliefs from the Union Budget 2025
Increased competition and growth in the EV space, driven by new model launches
Investors should keep an eye on key economic indicators, upcoming policy changes, and the evolving demand landscape, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market, which is poised for accelerated expansion.
Final Thoughts
The auto sector, despite short-term headwinds, remains an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors. By closely monitoring price trends, policy shifts, and sectoral demand, investors can navigate this evolving landscape effectively. The coming quarters will provide greater clarity on whether the industry can sustain its growth momentum or if further corrections are in store.
Stay updated with The ExpertSK blog for more insights into India's dynamic auto sector!
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