Trump Warns Iran of 'Greater Force' as Israel Shuts Airspace; Indian Stocks Brace for Monday Slump

  The escalating Israel-Iran conflict, now intensified by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has sent shockwaves through global markets. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking from the White House, warned Iran of “greater force” if it retaliates, labeling the nation a “Middle East bully” and urging peace. With Israeli airspace closed and U.S. B-2 stealth bombers deployed to Guam, the situation is precarious. This article analyzes the potential negative impact on the Indian stock market come Monday, as geopolitical tensions threaten economic stability. Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict The conflict entered its second week with the U.S. confirming strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities. These targeted attacks follow heightened hostilities between Israel and Iran, with Trump’s remarks signaling a hardline U.S. stance. The closure of Israeli airspace underscores the severity of the situation, disrupting regional trade and aviation routes. Iran’s potent...
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India Posts 7.4% GDP Growth in Q4 FY25, Driven by Services and Construction Surge

 

India’s economic growth surged ahead in the fourth quarter of FY25, with the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by a better-than-expected 7.4% between January and March 2025. This stellar performance cements India's status as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, even as global headwinds persist.

Q4 FY25 GDP: Key Highlights

  • GDP growth (Q4 FY25): 7.4%

  • Full-year GDP growth (FY25): 6.5%

  • IMF Outlook: India set to become the 4th largest global economy by FY26

The momentum in Q4 was underpinned by a strong recovery across sectors, showcasing the resilience and depth of India's economic framework.

Sectoral Growth: Services and Industry Outshine

  • Services sector posted a robust 7.3% growth, supported by IT, financial services, and real estate activity.

  • Industry made a strong comeback, particularly in construction, which surged 10.8%, driven by infrastructure projects and urban development.

  • Agriculture maintained steady momentum with 5.4% growth, highlighting consistent rural demand and favorable monsoons.

These sectoral performances reflect a well-balanced recovery, with both urban and rural engines contributing to growth.

Q3 FY25 Revision: A Positive Surprise

In another encouraging sign, the GDP growth for Q3 FY25 has been revised upward to 6.4%, reinforcing the view that India’s economy has remained more resilient than previously estimated. This revision also highlights the undercurrent of robust domestic demand and better-than-expected performance in services and manufacturing.

Expenditure Side: Investment and Exports Fuel Growth

On the demand side:

  • Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)—a key indicator of investment in the economy—rose 9.4%, signaling a revival in private sector confidence and infrastructure investment.

  • Net exports turned positive, driven by a strong performance in service exports, particularly in IT and business process outsourcing.

These trends are crucial as they point toward sustainable growth drivers, including higher capital formation and improving global competitiveness.

India’s Economic Outlook: FY26 and Beyond

With Q4 performance exceeding expectations and investment and exports gaining momentum, India is projected to grow at a robust 6.5% in FY26. The growth will likely be supported by:

  • Expanding digital infrastructure

  • Manufacturing incentives under ‘Make in India’

  • Continued focus on capex and ease of doing business

  • Global companies diversifying supply chains toward India

Moreover, with the IMF projecting India to overtake Japan by 2025-26, the nation is poised to become the 4th largest economy globally, behind only the US, China, and Germany.

Conclusion

India’s Q4 FY25 GDP data is a beacon of optimism for investors, policymakers, and citizens alike. With 7.4% growth, upward revisions for previous quarters, strong sectoral contributions, and encouraging investment trends, the Indian economy is not only back on track but is charting a path of long-term, sustainable growth.

As we look ahead to FY26, the outlook remains resilient, robust, and full of promise a testament to India's growing stature in the global economic order.


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