The Nifty closed below the critical 24,800 support level on Tuesday, marking its lowest close since August 14. Experts share their views on how the Nifty might perform in the trading session on Thursday, August 28, following the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday, and highlight the key levels and factors that could influence its movement.
The Nifty’s performance on Tuesday was notably weak, especially before the holiday break on Wednesday. After a shaky start, the index slipped below the crucial 24,800 support and even closed below its 50-day EMA. By the end of the trading session, it had dropped 256 points to 24,712, its lowest level since August 14.
So, what can we expect from the Nifty on Thursday, and which levels and factors will play a pivotal role? Let’s dive into the details, starting with a quick recap of Tuesday’s market action.
Tuesday’s Market Recap: What Triggered the Decline?
Tuesday’s session was tough for the Nifty, with the index showing weakness right from the opening bell. Reports of a potential 50% tariff by the US on Indian exports rattled market sentiment, leading to broad-based selling pressure. Financials and pharma stocks were hit hardest, with Sun Pharma (-3.3%) and Shriram Finance (-4%) among the top losers. However, auto and FMCG sectors provided some relief, with Eicher Motors (+2.7%) and Hindustan Unilever (+2.32%) posting gains.
The Nifty opened at 24,899.50, hit an intraday high of 24,919.65, but slid to a low of 24,689.60 before closing. The 230-point intraday swing highlighted market uncertainty. The RSI dipped below 50, signaling potential further weakness. The US tariff news raised concerns about its impact on India’s export sector, making investors cautious. Overall, market breadth remained negative, with only 10 stocks closing in the green.
Nifty Outlook for August 28: What Experts Are Saying
Thursday’s trading session, post the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday, is expected to see continued softness in the market, according to experts. Analysts at 5paisa suggest that the Nifty could face sustained selling pressure if it fails to hold above 24,850. They note that a break below this level could push the index toward 24,700.
Sumeet Bagadia from Choice India, in his weekly prediction, pointed out that the Nifty is trading near its short-term support of 24,840, which aligns with the 50-day EMA. A breach of this level could lead to further declines toward 24,650 or even 24,500. On the upside, the 25,150–25,350 range will act as a strong resistance zone. With the RSI at 50.59 and trending downward, momentum appears weak. Bagadia advises traders to stay cautious, as a short-covering rally could emerge near the monthly expiry.
EquityPandit analysts view the Nifty as being in a negative trend, recommending holding short positions unless the index closes above 25,150. For a longer-term perspective, Long Forecast predicts an average Nifty value of 24,020 for August 2025, with a potential dip to 23,774 by month-end.
On X, expert opinions lean bearish but are mixed. User @mohak_ailani predicts a long-term rise to 33,200 but warns of a possible crash in 2025/2026. Meanwhile, @ETNOWlive suggests that a break below the 100-day EMA could push the Nifty toward 24,340. Experts collectively urge caution, citing US tariffs and global cues as key risks.
Key Levels: Support and Resistance to Watch
The Nifty’s movement on August 28 will hinge on the following levels, as outlined by experts:
Indicator | Levels | Significance |
|---|
Support | 24,650 - 24,500 | Breach could trigger deeper declines; buying opportunity but risky |
Resistance | 24,850 - 25,000 | Breakout above could signal recovery, but selling pressure remains high |
Pivot | 24,800 | Key indicator of daily trend |
Targets | Up: 25,150; Down: 24,340 | Short-term movement range |
These levels are derived from open interest data and technical indicators like RSI and EMA. A sustained move above 24,850 could spark a gradual recovery toward 25,000, while a slip below could intensify bearish momentum.
Key Factors Influencing the Market
Several factors will shape the Nifty’s direction on August 28:
US Tariffs: The proposed 50% tariff on Indian exports continues to weigh on sentiment, potentially impacting export-driven sectors.
Global Cues: Asian markets are showing weakness, and GIFT Nifty indicates a gap-down opening. India VIX at 12.19 suggests rising volatility.
Expiry and Holiday Effect: With monthly expiry approaching, short-covering could trigger a rebound. Post-holiday volumes may remain low.
Institutional Flows: FIIs sold ₹2,466 crore worth of equities, while DIIs bought ₹3,176 crore. Continued FII selling could add pressure.
Sectoral Trends: IT and metals may see some recovery, but banking and pharma could remain weak.
These factors will collectively drive market direction, and investors should prioritize risk management.
Conclusion: Stay Cautious, Look for Opportunities
The Nifty is likely to face a challenging session on August 28, but a positive trigger could spark a short-covering rally. Experts highlight the 24,850–25,000 zone as critical. For long-term investors, this dip could present a buying opportunity, but short-term traders should exercise caution. Always align investments with your risk appetite and consult a financial advisor.
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