Real Estate Blues: Why 11 Key Indian Developers Are Down 5-38% YTD in 2025 Amid Market Headwinds

  The Indian real estate sector, often hailed as a cornerstone of economic growth, is facing a turbulent 2025. Contributing around 7% to the nation's GDP, the industry was projected to expand to $1 trillion by 2030, fueled by urbanization and infrastructure booms. Yet, halfway through the year, all 21 tracked stocks in the real estate and construction space are in the red, with year-to-date (YTD) declines ranging from a modest 5% to a staggering 38%. This sector-wide slump isn't just bad luck—it's a cocktail of escalating construction costs, a 13% drop in residential sales volumes in H1 2025 due to shifting buyer preferences and macroeconomic pressures, and affordability crunches in metros where prices have surged 21% annually. High interest rates and reduced launches have compounded the pain, leading to a 27% YoY dip in institutional investments to $1.2 billion in the first half. In this two-part deep dive, we'll unpack the first half of these laggards—11 stocks that...

ACC, UltraTech, Ambuja Cements: Cement Stocks Poised for Rally as GST Cut Boosts FY26 Profits

The Indian cement industry is gearing up for a significant upswing in FY26, with leading players like ACC, UltraTech Cement, and Ambuja Cements expected to benefit from a recent GST rate cut. According to a report by ratings agency ICRA, this policy change is set to reduce construction costs, drive demand, and enhance profitability for cement companies. Here's why cement stocks are likely to rally and why investors should keep a close eye on this sector.

GST Rate Cut: A Game-Changer for Cement Companies

In early September 2025, the Indian government announced a rationalization of GST rates, a move that is expected to lower overall construction expenses, particularly in rural housing, by 0.8%-1.0%. This reduction in costs is anticipated to boost cement demand, driving higher sales volumes and supporting capacity expansion for major players like ACC, UltraTech, and Ambuja Cements.

The GST cut comes at a time when cement demand is already robust, fueled by infrastructure development and rural housing initiatives. ICRA's report highlights that the combination of lower construction costs and strong demand will create a favorable environment for cement manufacturers, positioning them for significant growth in FY26.

Rising Cement Prices and Stable Input Costs

ICRA projects that average cement realization (ex-factory price excluding GST) will increase by 3-5% in FY26. This price hike, coupled with range-bound input costs, is expected to enhance operating profits by ₹100-₹150 per metric tonne (MT). The report further notes that OPBIDTA/MT (operating profit before interest, depreciation, taxes, and amortization per metric tonne) is likely to improve by 12-18%, reaching ₹900-950/MT in FY26.

This improvement in profitability metrics signals a strong financial outlook for cement companies. With stable raw material costs and rising cement prices, firms like UltraTech, ACC, and Ambuja are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand and improve their margins.

Why ACC, UltraTech, and Ambuja Cements Stand Out

  1. UltraTech Cement: As India’s largest cement manufacturer, UltraTech is poised to lead the rally. Its extensive production capacity, wide market reach, and ongoing expansion plans make it a prime beneficiary of the GST cut and rising demand.

  2. ACC: Known for its operational efficiency and strong presence in key markets, ACC is expected to see improved profitability as volumes rise and input costs remain stable.

  3. Ambuja Cements: Backed by the Adani Group, Ambuja is investing heavily in capacity expansion and sustainability initiatives, positioning it to capture a larger share of the growing market.

Cement Stocks: A Promising Investment Opportunity

The combination of a GST rate cut, strong demand, and improving profitability metrics makes cement stocks an attractive investment option in FY26. The anticipated increase in rural housing and infrastructure projects will further drive cement consumption, benefiting companies with strong operational frameworks and market presence.

Investors looking to capitalize on this trend should consider ACC, UltraTech, and Ambuja Cements for their portfolios. With the industry outlook turning bullish, these stocks are likely to deliver strong returns as the GST cut fuels growth and profitability.

Conclusion

The GST rate cut announced in September 2025 is a catalyst for the Indian cement industry, setting the stage for a rally in cement stocks. With rising cement prices, stable input costs, and increased demand, companies like ACC, UltraTech, and Ambuja Cements are well-positioned to achieve significant profit growth in FY26. As construction activities gain momentum, particularly in rural housing, these cement giants are poised to deliver value to both investors and stakeholders.

Disclaimer: Always conduct thorough research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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